The Big Leap - Waiting for the Improbable Event

Sometimes just building your online business is not enough to make the next leap. Can you be prepared for improbable events to make money online? This is a question I asked myself after reading a recent book (which I won't name right now until I am done).

I think that many of us start building online businesses the way you would build any regular business - by starting out slowly and growing it organically over time using proven techniques. However, using this method has a tendency to blind us to what might occur online - that is, the sudden, unexpected event that would propel us up into the stratosphere of internet marketing - something so big, so viral that you would never see it coming.

The thought has occurred to me that this might be the reason why some marketers are where they are today. I'm not saying that they didn't put any effort into what they did - but, they had a vision into something where most people have blind spot - that is, the improbable event.

Think of it this way - imagine you spent thousand of hours buying stock based on advice from the experts thereby slowly and carefully building a large, diversified portfolio. After some time (probably many years) you would see the fruits of your labor with consistent, secure profits. This is obviously something very scalable - the standard method, hard work, no chances, etc.

Now, imagine you tried to see the future by investing in only very small, risky, low cost stocks that focus on new ideas that haven't really caught on yet. Most likely you would see most of your money not doing anything at all - in fact, it would probably decline over time.

However, in the small stock example there happens to be one company whose ideas will spread like wildfire in the future - a kind of viral growth. When that happens suddenly your one investment amongst many may jump 1000-fold - guess what, you just become a millionaire! What just happened? You've prepared for the improbable event.

What if I wait and the improbable never occurs, you might ask. If you only look for the improbable you may or may not be successful - that's really not the point. But, if you mix your normal growth with an eye on the improbable I believe you get the best of both - building your business with mindset to what is invisible, improbable, of future potential, possible viral and simply amazing.

Are You an Expert?

Recently a friend of mine sent me a link to the current issue of the Harvard Business Review. Although I like to read HBRs articles from time to time I usually don't have enough time to dig into them due to the sheer amount of quality content. However, in this case I made an exception.

The article, called The Making of an Expert, had me immediately and completely engrossed from the first paragraph. It is a topic I have pondered before but not to the level of detail that K. Anders Ericsson, Michael J. Prietula, and Edward T. Cokely, the authors, did.

The basic premise behind the idea is that inequality of skills may not necessarily due to innate talent or brain chemistry but just simply a significant amount of concentrated effort over a long period of time. When you see any kind of virtuoso or sport superstar do you presuppose that the person in question had some kind of disposition for that talent in the first place? I know I did. Nevertheless, the author flies in the face of this notion and states the following premise:

Becoming an expert is not about innate talent or skill but about spending a significant number of hours of concentrated effort on the skill directly. In fact, he goes on to say that approximately 10,000 - 15,000 hours is needed to become a virtuoso.

I've thought about many people that I have known over the years and their level of skill. Does Author's theory fit my own experience? A very good friend of mine was a supurb guitar player. By the time he was 16 he was in demand and noted for his talent. Growing up with him I knew specifically how much time he devoted to his skill. He started playing when he was 9 so had 7 years under his belt. I know that based on his habits he probably averaged out to 2 hours a day and that may be a bit high - however I'll give him the benefit of doubt.

Working through the numbers means that in those 7 years he devoted about 5000 hours of time to his skill putting him in an elite group of guitar players within a local region. I can think of other cases as well such that it seems the time to get even to an elite status my be within the 3000-5000 hour range. I would even suggest that doctors go through this kind of effort during their residencies to boost them into an elite status (3 years at 10 hours a day average is about 10,000 hours) although I think that true concentrated effort may be half that. Nevertheless, the goal is to build on top of the effort spent in med school.

Now I'm not going to argue that there are innate talents, physique and smarts that give one person an advantage over another. No doubt that some will excel much faster than others. But the author's argument is that those who are young and coached get a distinct concentrated effort advantage.

Here is my own theory based on the article
2500 hours - considered very skilled, very good.
5000 hours - excellence
7500 hours - master
10,000 hours - expert or virtuoso

What does that translate to your own work? If you spend 2 hours of concentrated effort a day you will be a very skilled pratitioner in your field of study in 3 years (about 2200 hours). This could be applied to any skillset be it sports, academics, business, arts, and even working to make money online, etc. Of course, 2 hours of concentrated effort a day is quite a bit for any adult.

Whatever your intended knowledge and skillset this article might be a good measuring stick for your own success.

Slow Down Culture

I'm not really sure who wrote this since I received it from a friend via email. I must say that it did make me stop and reflect on how we approach our own work with goals of trying to earn money online quickly.

Stop, read, pause and reflect - I hope you enjoy this:

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It's been 18 years since I joined Volvo, a Swedish company. Working
for them has proven to be an interesting experience. Any project here
takes 2 years to be finalized, even if the idea is simple and
brilliant. It's a rule.

Globalize processes have caused in us (all over the world) a general
sense of searching for immediate results. Therefore, we have come to
posses a need to see immediate results. This contrasts greatly with
the slow movements of the Swedish. They, on the other hand, debate,
debate, debate, hold x quantity of meetings and work with a slowdown
scheme. At the end, this always yields better results.

Said in another words:
1. Sweden is about the size of San Pablo, a state in Brazil.
2. Sweden has 2 million inhabitants.
3. Stockholm, has 500,000 people.
4. Volvo, Escania, Ericsson, Electrolux, Nokia are some of its
renowned companies. Volvo supplies the NASA.

The first time I was in Sweden, one of my colleagues picked me up at
the hotel every morning. It was September, bit cold and snowy. We
would arrive early at the company and he would park far away from the
entrance (2000 employees drive their car to work). The first day, I
didn't say anything, either the second or third. One morning I asked,
"Do you have a fixed parking space? I've noticed we park far from the
entrance even when there are no other cars in the lot." To which he
replied, "Since we're here early we'll have time to walk, and whoever
gets in late will be late and need a place closer to the door. Don't you think? Imagine my face.

Nowadays, there's a movement in Europe name Slow Food. This movement
establishes that people should eat and drink slowly, with enough time
to taste their food, spend time with the family, friends, without rushing.
Slow Food is against its counterpart: the spirit of Fast Food and what
it stands for as a lifestyle. Slow Food is the basis for a bigger
movement called Slow Europe, as mentioned by Business Week.

Basically, the movement questions the sense of "hurry" and "craziness"
generated by globalization, fueled by the desire of "having in quantity"
(life status) versus "having with quality", "life quality" or the
"quality of being". French people, even though they work 35 hours per
week, are more productive than Americans or British. Germans have
established 28.8 hour workweeks and have seen their productivity been driven up by 20%.
This slow attitude has brought forth the US's attention, pupils of the
fast and the "do it now!".

This no-rush attitude doesn't represent doing less or having a lower
productivity. It means working and doing things with greater quality,
productivity, perfection, with attention to detail and less stress. It
means reestablishing family values, friends, free and leisure time.
Taking the "now", present and concrete, versus the "global", undefined
and anonymous. It means taking humans' essential values, the
simplicity of living.

It stands for a less coercive work environment, more happy, lighter
and more productive where humans enjoy doing what they know best how to do.
It's time to stop and think on how companies need to develop serious
quality with no-rush that will increase productivity and the quality
of products and services, without losing the essence of spirit.

In the movie, Scent of a Woman, there's a scene where Al Pacino asks a
girl to dance and she replies, "I can't, my boyfriend will be here any
minute now". To which Al responds, "A life is lived in an instant".
Then they dance to a tango.

Many of us live our lives running behind time, but we only reach it
when we die of a heart attack or in a car accident rushing to be on time.
Others are so anxious of living the future that they forget to live
the present, which is the only time that truly exists. We all have
equal time throughout the world. No one has more or less. The
difference lies in how each one of us does with our time. We need to
live each moment. As John Lennon said, "Life is what happens to you
while you're busy making other plans".

Congratulations for reading till the end of this message. There are
many who will have stopped in the middle so as not to waste time in
this globalize world.

Author Unknown

Get Rich Quick Impulse Buys & StumbleUpon

Ugh! I'm not feeling very agile today - there's just too many things going on which tends to weaken my ability to think straight. Part of this was leftovers from a stressful day yesterday which leads into today's topic - Impulse Buys. Have you done it yet?

If you're like me you get your fair number of emails from all of your favorite marketers and gurus. And, of course, someone comes along with the great new product or method that you have to buy to get rich quick. Frankly, I'm no great master of judgment when it comes to picking up a new product. I tend to use my gut feeling, some internet research and forums to make my decision. But when I'm weakened by stress I tend to get excited too quickly and have made the occasional spot buy. It almost happened last night but I've made a decision recently to always wait one day before doing it even if the price is low.

So, some quick advice for today - when you read about the hot new product to buy do the following: 1) always sleep on it first (wait one day), 2) do a Google search for the product with keywords 'review', 'scam', 'problems', 'success', etc and see what the general consensus is, and 3) post a question about the product on a forum to see if anyone has used it. If you follow these steps it should keep you from the spot buy. (In the future I will post a secret on how you can generally glean the content of a product without buying it - one of my 'black-hat' techniques).

Here is my fun topic of the day - try out StumbleUpon. Just create an account and download the browser tool bar. It's quite fun and a great time waster - sorry!! ;)